The predictive value of calcitonin in the severity and prognosis of elderly patients with severe pneumonia
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1008-6706.2016.21.005
- VernacularTitle:降钙素原检测对老年人重症肺炎病情严重性及预后的判断价值
- Author:
Tong ZHANG
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Procalcitonin;
Severe pneumonia;
Prognosis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Primary Medicine and Pharmacy
2016;23(21):3217-3221
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the value of serum calcitonin level to determine the illness severity of the elderly patients with severe pneumonia within six hours after admission and to dynamically observe the predictive value of serum PCT level change rate in different time points on the prognosis of the patients.Methods A total of one hundred and twenty olderly patients with severe pneumonia were enrolled.Within six hours after admission,the serum PCT level was detected by enzyme linked fluorescence analysis.Acute physiology and chronic health score (APACHEⅡ)were used to assess the severity of the disease.The correlation between serum PCT and APACHEⅡ score was analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient.The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve)showed the value of serum PCT level for the prognosis.Serum PCT levels were respectively monitored on the 1st,2nd,3rd and 5th day. Based on the prognosis outcome on twenty -first day after admission,the patients were divided into survival group and death group.The changes of serum PCT level in two groups were compared and the rate of change of serum PCT was also compared and the value of the clinical mortality of twenty -first day was assessed.Results Within six hours after admission,the level of serum PCT was positively correlated with APACHE Ⅱ score (r =0.768,P <0.05).The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve)showed that the level of serum PCT was low for the predictive value on the prognosis of the patients,and the area under the curve was 0.502(t =0.915,P =0.153).All patients, there were ninty -four cases in the survival group and twenty -six cases of death group.Dynamic observation of serum PCT levels in the survival group showed a trend of gradual decline with time prolong,the level of PCT change rate was more than or equal to 50 percent within 72 hours.The level of serum PCT change rate in death group showed a gradual upward or downward trend and the change rate of PCT in seventy -two hours was less than 50%.The ROC curve showed that the rate of change of serum PCT level in seventy -two hours was better in predicting the mortality of patients on the twenty -first day,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.892(t =3.895,P =0.001).Conclusion Dynamic monitoring of serum PCT levels can be helped to assessment the prognosis of patients with sepsis and also predict the severity of the illness.The level of serum calcitonin can reflect the severity of severe pneumonia in elderly patients within six hours after admission,but can not accurately determine the prognosis of patients with severe pneu-monia.Dynamic monitoring of changes in serum calcitonin level is helpful to judge the prognosis of the elderly patients with severe pneumonia and the predictive value of serum calcitonin level change rate is higher in seventy -two hours after admission.
