Rapid Distinguishment of Drug Consumption Patterns by the Seasonal Decomposition Method
10.6039/j.issn.1001-0408.2015.34.22
- VernacularTitle:采用季节性分解方法快速分析药品消耗规律
- Author:
Xiang TAO
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Seasonal decomposition method;
Rapid analysis;
Drug consumption;
Patterns;
Components
- From:
China Pharmacy
2015;(34):4818-4820
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE:To establish a simple and feasible method for rapid analysis of drug consumption patterns,and to im-prove the level of hospital pharmacy management. METHODS:Taking Motilium tablet as an example,the actual order amount da-ta of 24 months were analyzed by time series seasonal decomposition method;several key components of change trend were extract-ed by SPSS software,i.g. smoothed trend-cycle(STC),seasonal factors(SAF)and seasonally adjusted series(SAS). The varia-tion of components data series was observed to obtain the conclusion,and then compared with direct-vision method. RESULTS:The seasonal decomposition method had high prediction accuracy,the mean absolute percent error (MARE)(0.17) was less than that of error value by direct-vision method (0.24) significantly. CONCLUSIONS:This method can found drug consumption pat-terns quickly and accurately with the help of software. Based on this aspect,stock adjustment strategy can combine daily manage-ment and long-term dynamic management conveniently so as to improve the level of drug management.
