Development and validation of no-reflow phenomenon risk score in patients with acute myocardial infarction
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1671-0282.2016.07.006
- VernacularTitle:急性心肌梗死患者发生无复流现象的危险评分
- Author:
Yuhong PENG
;
Xianghua FU
;
Leisheng RU
;
Jiaan SUN
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction;
No-reflow phenomenon;
Percutaneous coronary intervention;
Risk factor;
Score
- From:
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine
2016;25(7):871-877
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish a bedside available risk scoring system of no-reflow in the acute stage of STEMI.Methods Data from STEMI patients treated with PCI divided into model group and validation group were analyzed.Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent no-reflow predictors of the model group.Finally,a score according to the odds ratio on logistic regression analysis was designed,and then risk stratification was established,and no-reflow high-risk patients with myocardial infarction were selected.The authenticity and reliability of the logistic regression courses were validated using receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC)and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that female (OR =0.587,P =0.019),Killip class of myocardial infarction≥2 (OR =3.656,P <0.01),TIMI flow ≤2 before primary PCI (OR =0.774,P =0.013),thrombus burden score ≥4 on baseline angiography (OR =2.629,P <0.01),pain to balloon time ≥ 6 h (OR =1.485,P =0.083)were independent correlate predictors of no-reflow phenomenon in the STEMI after PCI.The risk score system demonstrated a good risk prediction in the model group with AUC of 0.716 (95%CI:0.671 -0.761)based on ROC analysis.There was no significant discrepancy between multivariate logistic regression analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (χ2 =1.027,P =0.994).In risk stratification,total value <2 was assigned into low risk level,and 2-5 was put into the medium risk level,and >5 was arranged into high risk level.The risk score system demonstrated a good risk prediction in the validation group with AUC of 0.891 (95%CI:0.822 -0.959)based on ROC analysis.ROC analysis in the validation group was applied to Killip class,thrombus burden,score and risk stratification in the validation group ,and the no-reflow score was more accurate,with a larger area under the curve (AUC = 0.851,95% CI:0.776 -0.927 ).Conclusions Establishment of no-reflow scoring system with STEMI patients undergoing PCI was benefit to select high risk patients with no-reflow.
