Forecast of Clinical Blood Collection Volume with Dynamic Grey GM(1,1)Mathematical Model

VernacularTitle:应用灰色动态GM（1，1）数学模型进行临床血液采集量预测
Author: Xiaowei ZHANG ; Shuxiang WANG ; Yan WANG ; Ling MA
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: dynamic grey model GM (1,1); dynamics; blood; collection quantity
From: Journal of Modern Laboratory Medicine 2016;31(3):117-120
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To explore the application of dynamic grey GM (1,1)modeling,analyse and forecast varieties of blood collection volume for central blood bank of Chengde in Hebei Province,under normal dynamic development trends,and make quantitative predictions according to the model’s application.Methods According to the blood collection data of whole blood,single white blood platelet (person-portion)in the blood Bank of Chengde city fom January 2004 to December 2013 (400 ml/people),and in order to test predictive ability of the model by comparing the forecast value with the actual value in 2013.At the same time,analysed blood collection value in 2014 to 2016.Results The above two types of blood collection number grey GM (1,1)model Y (t)posterior difference (standard deviation)C<0.35,small error probability P was 1.Ac-curacy was excellent,good for prediction of blood collection.Conclusion These two categories of blood collecting species in Central Blood Bank of Chengde increased gradually.Grey model GM (1,1)as a new prediction model can forecast reasonably clinical blood collection volume under normal lynamic development trends.