The value of the baseline MELD scores, MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores in short-tern prognosis in hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients
10.3760/cma.j.issn.2095-4352.2014.08.003
- VernacularTitle:基线MELD、MELD-Na、iMELD 3种模型对乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者近期预后的评估价值
- Author:
Chen LI
;
Shaoli YOU
;
Hongling LIU
;
Wanshu LIU
;
Zhihong WAN
;
Guo TANG
;
Shaojie XIN
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hepatitis B virus;
Acute-on-chronic liver failure;
Model for end-stage liver disease;
Short-term prognosis;
Assessed value
- From:Chinese Critical Care Medicine
2014;26(8):539-543
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the function of the baseline model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores in short-term prognosis in the initial treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients.Methods 232 HBV-related ACLF patients who received initial treatment in 302 Military Hospital of China from January 2011 to January 2013 were enrolled in this prospective clinical follow-up.The relationship between the baseline MELD scores,MELD-Na scores,iMELD scores and clinical outcomes were analyzed,and the value of these three models for short term prognosis was assessed.Results Finally the 12-week clinical follow-up was completed in 191 patients,with the completion rate of 82.33％.Eighty-five patients died,with the fatality rate of 44.50％.Compared with the survival group,in non-survival group,the baseline of MELD scores (26.65 ± 7.75 vs.21.19 ± 5.42,t=-5.720,P=0.000),MELD-Na scores (29.16 ± 11.35 vs.21.72 ± 6.33,t=-5.729,P=0.000),iMELD scores (47.19 ± 10.96 vs.38.02 ±7.01,t=-7.011,P=0.000),total bilirubin [TBil (μmol/L):374.3 ± 150.1 vs.305.5 ± 147.1,t=-3.182,P=0.002],creatinine [Cr (μmol/L):110.7 ±90.1 vs.71.1 ± 35.1,t=-4.157,P=0.000] and international normalized ratio (INR:2.3 ± 0.9 vs.2.0 ± 0.6,t=-2.754,P=0.006) were significantly increased,but the baseline of serum Na+ (mmol/L:132.8 ± 6.1 vs.136.7 ± 5.1,t=4.861,P=0.000) was significantly lowered.It was shown by Spearman correlation analysis thai the baseline MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores all had positive correlation with the short-term prognosis of patients (r value was 0.398,0.404,and 0.470,respectively,all P=0.000),the baseline of serum Na+ had a negative correlation with the short-term prognosis of patients (r=-0.365,P=0.000).It was shown by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) that the cut-off scores of the baseline of MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores were 25.07,25.43 and 43.11 respectively,and the area under ROC curve (AUC) of the baseline of MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores were 0.731,0.735 and 0.773,respectively.The sensitivity of the three models was 55.3％,57.7％,63.5％,and the specificity was 84.9％,84.0％,84.9％ respectively.The value of the three models had no difference in short-term prognostic prediction.According to the respective cut-off score,the three prediction models were divided into four groups,and all of them had differences in fatality rate on the whole (x2 for MELD scores was 34.740,P=0.000; x2 for MELD-Na scores was 36.861,P=0.000; x2 for iMELD scores was 50.127,P=0.000).The mortality was elevated gradually as the equation scores increased.Conclusion The baseline of MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores can predict well the short-term prognosis of the initial treatment in HBV-related ACLF patients,and have relatively good clinical value for guiding therapy.
