A Time-series Study for Acute Effect of Air Pollution on Mortality in Patients With Cardio-cerebral Vascular Disease in Tianjin City
10.3969/j.issn.1000-3614.2014.06.015
- VernacularTitle:采用时间序列泊松回归分析天津市大气污染物对心脑血管疾病死亡的急性影响
- Author:
Dezheng WANG
;
Guohong JIANG
;
Qing GU
;
Hui ZHANG
;
Zhongliang XU
;
Guide SONG
;
Ying ZHANG
;
Chengfeng SHEN
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Cardio-cerebral vascular disease;
Mortality;
Generalized additive model;
Air pollution;
Acute effect
- From:
Chinese Circulation Journal
2014;(6):453-457
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To explore the acute effect of air pollution on mortality for patients with cardio cerebral vascular disease and to provide the basis for disease prevention and control.
Methods: The Mortality for patients with cardio cerebral vascular disease from 2001-01 to 2009-12 was from Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the meteorological and air pollution data were from Tianjin meteorological bureau and Tianjin environmental monitoring station respectively. The Single and multiple generalized additive model (GAM) extended poisson regression analysis was performed to calculate the relationship between air pollution and cardio-cerebral vascular disease mortality by controlling the time trends, weather, the day of week and air population.
Results: Results: Single GAM analysis indicated that when the effect of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in the air reached the maximum in the day, the RR values for the mortality in patients with cardio-cerebral vascular disease increased 1.13%[95%CI (0.76-1.51)%], 0.78% [95%CI ( 0.41-1.15)%] and 0.61% [95%CI ( 0.51-0.71)%] respectively; when the average concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 increasing 10μg/m3 per day, after 0-5 days, the RR values for the mortality elevated 0.70% [95%CI (0.47-0.94)%], 0.51% [95%CI (0.27-0.74)%] and 0.16% [95%CI (0.06-0.27)%] respectively. Multiple GAM analysis presented that when SO2, NO2 and PM10 increasing 10 μg/m3 per day, the RR values for the mortality elevated 0.77% [95%CI (0.58-0.97)%], 0.41% [95%CI (0.05-0.78) %] and 0.38% [95%CI (0.12-0.64%)%] respectively.
Conclusion: The air pollution could increase the mortality risk in patients with cardio-cerebral vascular disease, it is necessary to establish the prevention system in order to decrease the mortality risk in those patients.
