Model for end-stage liver disease score and serum natrium level in predicting short-term prognosis of liver failure
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1674-2397.2014.03.005
- VernacularTitle:终末期肝病模型评分及血清钠在肝衰竭近期预后判断中的意义
- Author:
Jiaxi CHENG
;
Lihua SUN
;
Yuexin ZHANG
;
Xiaobo LU
;
Xiaofeng SUN
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Liver failure;
Prognosis;
Model for end-stage liver disease;
Model for end-stage liver disease-Na
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases
2014;7(3):212-217
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD combined with serum natrium level (MELD-Na) in predicting short-term prognosis of liver failure.Methods Clinical data of 322 patients with liver failure admitted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from April 2003 to April 2012 were retrospectively analyzed.MELD and MELD-Na scores were calculated at diagnosis and one week after the diagnosis,and then △MELD and △MELD-Na were determined.Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and Kaplan-Meier survival curve were used to evaluate the value of the above scores in predicting 3-month prognosis.Results The 3-month mortality rates of acute/sub-acute,acute-on-chronic and chronic liver failure were 77.4％ (24/31),41.7％ (50/120) and 56.1％ (96/171),respectively,and the difference was of statistical significance (x2 =14.273,P ＜0.01).For acute/sub-acute liver failure,the areas under ROC curve (AUCs) were 0.699-0.836 for each scoring system in predicting short-term prognosis,and no significant difference was observed (Z =0.507,0.622,0.712,0.727,0.779 and 0.599,P ＞0.05).For acute-on-chronic liver failure,AUCs were 0.889 and 0.897 for △MELD and △MELD-Na in predicting short-term prognosis,which were higher than those of MELD and MELD-Na scores at the baseline (Z =3.110 and 3.500,P ＜ 0.05),but no significant difference was observed between △MELD and △MELD-Na (Z =0.310,P ＞ 0.05) ; Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the 3-month mortality rate for patients with △MELD ＞ 3.5 was 87.8％,and the average survival time was 34.05 d.For chronic liver failure,AUC of △MELD was 0.871 in predicting short-term prognosis,which was higher than that of △MELD-Na (Z =4.229,P ＜0.05) ; Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the 3-month mortality rate for patients with △MELD ＞ 4.5 was 89.9％,and the average survival time was 29.08 d.Conclusion For acute/sub-acute liver failure,MELD,MELD-Na,△MELD and △MELD-Na are all satisfactory in predicting short-term prognosis; for acute-on-chronic liver failure,△MELD and △MELD-Na are better than MELD,MELD-Na scores at the baseline; and for chronic liver failure,△MELD is the best indicator.
