Predictive value of the early modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale for the prognosis of ischemic stroke
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1006-7876.2012.03.003
- VernacularTitle:早期改良美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分对缺血性卒中预后的预测作用
- Author:
Song TAN
;
Siyuan CHANG
;
Bo SONG
;
Yuan GAO
;
Jiameng LU
;
Yuming XU
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Stroke;
Brain ischemia;
Prognosis;
Severity of illness index;
Forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Neurology
2012;45(3):154-157
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the predictive value of the modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ( mNIHSS),measured within 9 days after stroke,for the outcome in terms of modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 6 months after stroke.Methods AII 161 patients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke were recruited consecutively from July 2010 until November 2010.The mNIHSS score was assessed within 3 days,4 to 6 days and 7 to 9 days after stroke,and the mRS score at 6 months after stroke was assessed by a neurology resident.Spearman rank correlation and ROC curve were used for statistic analysis.Results One hundred and sixty-one patients were assessed within 3 days,at 4 to 6 days and 7 to 9 days after stroke.Significant Spearman rank correlation coefficients were found between mRS at 6 months and mNIHSS scores within 3 days (rs =0.592,P＜0.01 ),4 to 6 days (rs =0.597,P＜0.01 ) and 7 to 9days (rs =0.595,P＜0.01).At 6 months after stroke,the AUC ranged from 0.789 (95％ CI 0.708-0.856) for measurements within 3 days to 0.792 (95％ CI 0.712-0.857 ) and 0.799 ( 95％ CI 0.721-0.864) for 4 to 6 days and 7 to 9 days,respectively. There was no significant difference for the AUCbetween them.The optimal cut-off values for the prediction of prognosis at 6 months were 8,7 and 6 points of mNIHSS score within 3 days,4 to 6 days and 7 to 9 days,respectively.The negative predictive value gradually increased from 0.847 for assessment within 3 days to 0.867 ( 95％ CI 0.578-0.765 ) for 7 to 9 days,whereas positive predictive value declined from 0.601 for assessment within 3 days to 0.533 for 7 to 9 days.The overall accuracy of predtictions decreased from 0.753 for assessment within 3 days to 0.709 for 7 to 9 days.Conclusions When measured within 9 days,the mNIHSS has a good predictive value for final outcome in terms of mRS at 6 months after stroke.However,the optimal cut-off values for the prediction of prognosis at 6 months are different when early mNIHSS scores were assessed at different periods.
