Temporal and spatial distribution as well as prediction model of sexually transmitted diseases in elderly men in Shenzhen
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-9026.2010.05.013
- VernacularTitle:深圳市老年男性性病的时空分布现状及发病预测模型研究
- Author:
Yufeng HU
;
Zhenqiu SUN
;
Fuchang HONG
;
Lina LAN
;
Peng PAN
;
Yanshi MO
;
Yumao CAI
;
Lizhang WEN
;
Tiejian FENG
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Sexually transmitted diseases;
Forecasting;
Models,statistical
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics
2010;29(5):397-400
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the status quo of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) of the elderly in recent years in Shenzhen, to explore the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution,and to establish prediction model of STDs of the elderly in Shenzhen. MethodsUsing the surveillance system data of STDs from 2005 to 2009 in Shenzhen city, the incidence, temporal and spatial distribution of syphilis and gonorrhea were analyzed in the elderly aged 50 years and over by SaTScan. The incidence prediction model of STDs was established by Eviews 5.0.Results (1)The incidences of the two kinds of STDs from 2005 to 2009 in Shenzhen were on the rise and on more marked increase in male than in female. The rising velocity in over-60 year age group was similar with in 50-59 year age group. The rising velocity of syphilis was faster than gonorrhea. (2)The space-time distribution analysis showed there were clusters of the STDs in elderly men in 2005 in Lianhua and Meilin districts (P = 0. 026, RR= 2.13). (3) ARIMA (0, 1,1) (0,0, 1) 12 model was a suitable forecasting model for STDs in elderly men in Shenzhen. Conclusions
