Establishment and efficacy evaluation of autoregression moving average model for prediction of general traffic accidents in one district of Chongqing
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-8050.2010.06.021
- VernacularTitle:一般交通事故预测中自回归滑动平均模型的建立及效果评价
- Author:
Lu ZHANG
;
Hongyan XIONG
;
Sheng ZHANG
;
Zhonglin RAO
;
Guorong HUANG
;
Jun QIU
;
Jihong ZHOU
;
Liang ZHANG
;
Yang LI
;
Guoling LI
;
Danfeng YUAN
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Accidents,traffic;
ARMA;
Time series;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Trauma
2010;26(6):546-550
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish an autoregression moving average (ARMA) model for predicting general traffic accidents and analyzing distributional difference on time series and frequency of common traffic accident so as to provide certain basis for a prediction model with better stability and accuracy. Methods The data of road traffic accidents in one newly developed zone of Chongqing in 2000-2005 were collected. The monthly distribution regularity of road traffic accidents was analyzed with descriptive epidemiologic method. ARMA model was set up for retrospective and prospective prediction. The predicted data were compared. Results Based on the characteristics of monthly distribution, the frequency of general traffic accidents in this area showed a cyclic fashion. The frequency of general traffic accidents predicted by ARMA model had over 80% of coincidence with the actual value. Conclusion The ARMA model can be used to predict the frequency of general traffic accidents, with better accuracy of short-term prediction than the long-term prediction.
