OBJECTIVETo explore the association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the distance from Suihe River in Lingbi county, Suzhou, Anhui province.

METHODSUsing the disease mapping and spatial statistical analysis techniques,we described the spatial distributions of the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma from 2005 to 2010 in Lingbi county. Taking the distance between villages and polluted rivers as proxy variable of environmental exposure, mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma in each village as dependant variable, and using the Glimmix model and Bayesian spatial model (BYM) to undertake the univariate and multivariate analysis, we investigatived the association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the water pollution of Suihe River in Lingbi county.

RESULTSObvious clustering of high mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma along the polluted river was observed in Lingbi county. Results of Glimmix model showed that whether spatial autocorrelation was considered or not, closer to the polluted river has higher mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma. Results of univariate analysis of the BYM model showed that, compared with the villages far from the polluted river more than 12 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 33.12/100 000(1068/3 224 562) ), the RR values of the hepatic carcinoma mortality was 1.38(95%CI:1.06-1.82) for the villages apart from the polluted river within 6 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 42.48/100 000(777/1 829 064)), and 1.13 (95%CI:0.92-1.39) for villages apart from the river between 6 and 12 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 35.65/100 000(651/1 825 848)). In the BYM model multivariate analysis, adding the volume of fertilizer and pesticides used per cultivated area, GDP per capita to do multivariate analysis were, the relation between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and distance from polluted rivers remains unchanged.

CONCLUSIONThe mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was associated with the exposure to the polluted river in Lingbi county. The polluted river may increase the hepatic carcinoma mortality of nearby residents.