OBJECTIVETo evaluate the detection of cytomegalovirus (CMV) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for predicting the development of CMV disease.

METHODSOne hundred and thirty one allo-HSCT patients performed in the past 2 years were analyzed retrospectively. PCR-CMV was used to monitor CMV viremia and vireuria once a week after transplantation.

RESULTSIn the dynamic detection, CMV viremia was positive for at least one chance in 89 patients, vireuria did in 99 patients. Thirty-seven patients developed CMV disease with an accumulative incidence of 32.5%. The incidence of CMV disease was 15.6% in plasma CMV-PCR negative group, 31.3% in positive once group, and 47.3% in positive over twice group. There was significant difference among the three groups (P = 0.0126). The incidence of CMV disease was 24.8% in urine CMV-PCR negative group, 43.5% in positive once group, and 33.0% in positive over twice group, being no significant difference among them (P = 0.845). On analysis, viremia could predict the development of CMV disease: the PPV (positive predictive value) is 40.5%, NPV (negative predictive value) is 84.4%, sensitivity is 75.0%, and specificity is 69.2%.

CONCLUSIONSDetected by CMV-PCR, MCV viremia may predict the development of CMV disease, but MCV vireuria cannot.