OBJECTIVETo establish a predicting model of survival rates and to evaluate the weighted contributions of each key prognostic factor of the patients with salivary adenoid cystic carcinoma (SACC).

METHODSOne hundred and eighteen follow-up cases with SACC were analyzed for the survival study with retrospective cohort method. Ten possible clinical and pathologic factors were selected. A multivariate analysis was performed by Cox proportional hazard model and prognostic index (PI) was calculated. According to the PI, all cases were divided into three risk subgroups respectively: lower, intermediate and higher risk subgroups. Ten-year survival rate and median survival time were calculated and the predicting models of survival rates were established.

RESULTSThe significant prognostic factors influencing the survival rate were age at diagnosis, clinical presentation, TNM clinical stage, treatment, surgical margins (P < 0.05). The predicting formula was PI = 0.031X(2) + 0.665X(5) + 0.420X(6)-0.576X(7) + 0.999X(10). According to the value of PI, the prognosis of the patients was significantly different among the three subgroups (P < 0.05). In the three risk subgroups, 10-year survival rates were 83.56%, 31.45% and 11.20% respectively, the median survival time was 18 years, 7 years and 4 years respectively.

CONCLUSIONSThe established predicting model of survival rates can predict the prognosis of the patients with SACC.