Predict value of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation Ⅱ on 30 days operative mortality in patients with severe coronary artery disease undergoing active treatments
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-3758.2015.08.013
- VernacularTitle:欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统Ⅱ对严重冠心病积极治疗后早期死亡的预测价值
- Author:
Huawei GAO
1
;
Zhe ZHENG
;
Shengshou HU
;
Bo XU
Author Information
1. 100037,中国医学科学院北京协和医学院国家心血管病中心阜外心血管病医院外科
- Keywords:
Coronary disease;
Forecasting;
Death
- From:
Chinese Journal of Cardiology
2015;43(8):709-711
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To assess the predict value of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) Ⅱ on early death in patients with severe coronary artery disease undergoing active treatment.Methods Consecutive 2 240 patients with three-vessel disease (with or without left main disease) diagnosed by elevtive coronary angiogram between July 2011 and September 2012 were screened for this study,data from 1 892 patients who underwent active treatments(percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting) were analyzed retrospectivly.The predicted 30 days operative mortality calculated with EuroSCORE Ⅱ was compared with the actual one.The calibration and discrimination of EuroSCORE Ⅱ were tested with Hosmer-Lemeshow x2 test and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve respectively.Results Age was61.0(54.0-68.0) years old and75.8％ (1 435/1 892) were male in this cohort,58.0％ (1 097/1 892) patients received percutaneous coronary intervention and 42.0％ (795/1 892) patients received coronary artery bypass grafting.The overall 30 days operative mortality was 0.53％ (10/1 892),30 days operative mortality predicted by EuroSCORE Ⅱ was 0.85％ (95％ CI:0.44％-1.26％).The calibration (x2 =3.47 and P ＞ 0.10) and discrimination (area under ROC curve was 0.75) of EuroSCORE Ⅱ were satisfactory.Conclusion EuroSCORE Ⅱ could precisely predict 30 days operative mortality for three-vessel disease patients with or without left main disease undergoing active treatments.
