OBJECTIVETo investigate the predictive value of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for early bleeding after esophageal variceal ligation (EVL) by analyzing the differences in HVPG in patients with and without post-EVL bleeding.

METHODSThe medical records of patients who had been diagnosed with cirrhosis and esophageal varices and who had pre-EVL HVPG measurement data were surveyed. The study population included 105 patients from October 2010 to March 2014. Data of HVPG value, previous treatment history, endoscopic manifestation, and whether bleeding and serious complications occurred within 2 weeks after the ligation procedure were investigated as independent risk factors.

STATISTICAL METHODSincluded the chi-square test and Wilcoxon test, logistic regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis using the SPSS software version 16.

RESULTSOnly HVPG value was identified as an independent risk factor of early bleeding after EVL.According to the ROC analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) of HVPG for early bleeding after EVL was 0.866; when HVPG was more than or equal to 16 mmHg, AUC was 0.838. The sensitivity was 90.9% and the specificity was 76.4%.

CONCLUSIONHVPG is an independent factor of early bleeding after EVL and when HVPG cut-off value of more than or equal to 16 mmHg is used the predictive ability has certain accuracy and high sensitivity and specificity.