OBJECTIVETo establish a preoperative deep venous thrombosis predictor score for patients with fresh lower extremity fractures by statistical analysis.

METHODSFrom January 2011 to December 2012, 1 705 patients with fresh lower extremity fractures were admitted to department of orthopaedic trauma, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital. They were randomly divided into two groups, the group 1 (n = 879) was used to screen risk factors and derived a predictive models based on logistic regression, the group 2 (n = 826) validated the models.

RESULTSAmong the patients, there were 1 106 male and 599 female patients, with an average age of (50 ± 18) years.Variables related to preoperative deep venous thrombosis were age, length of time before surgery, cause of injury, low/high-energy injury, location of injury, history of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and D-Dimer. The scores based on OR were: age ≤ 35 years: 1 point, > 35- < 65 years: 4 points, ≥ 65 years: 6 points; length of time before surgery, < 8 days:1 point, ≥ 8 days:2 points;low-energy injury:1 point, high energy injury:3 points;location of injury, foot and ankle:1 point, calf:3 points, around the knee: 5 points, femoral diaphysis and proximal femur:7 points, pelvis and acetabulum:4 points, ≥ 2 sites:6 point;history of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, yes:2 points, no:1 point. D-Dimer < 600 µg/L:1 point, ≥ 600 µg/L:3 points. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79, critical point 15.5 points, sensitivity was 77.00%, specificity was 68.17%.

CONCLUSIONThe score can predict the preoperative deep venous thrombosis for patients with fresh lower extremity fractures, but limited.