BACKGROUNDPrevious studies showed that the prognostic factors for superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder varied with the findings of different cohorts. Few multivariate analyses of prognostic factors for superficial bladder tumors have been reported in China and bladder preservation as a prognostic index of superficial bladder tumors is limited and scarce in Chinese patients. This study was conducted to analyze a group of risk factors for prognostic outcomes for patients with primary superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder.

METHODSBetween January 1980 to December 2000, 198 patients [172 men and 26 women; mean age (52.98 +/- 11.28) years] with primary superficial transitional cell carcinoma who were pathologically classified as Ta or T1 in Hunan Provincial Tumor Hospital (Changsha, China) were enrolled in this study. Surgical methods included local resection and electric coagulation of bladder tumors, transurethral resection of bladder tumors and partial cystectomy. After initial surgical treatment, patients were followed through a cystoscopy every three months during the first two years and every six months thereafter in the design of retrospective cohort. Survival analysis was performed to analyze risk factors of the prognostic outcomes for transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. Canonical correlation analysis was conducted to present and interpret synthetically the multi-correlation between all kinds of prognostic outcomes and risk factor in multiply dimensions.

RESULTSThe average follow-up period was (6.65 +/- 4.74) years. Assessments at three, five, and 10 years showed recurrence rates, respectively, of (28.32 +/- 3.45)%, (35.31 +/- 3.83)%, and (42.48 +/- 4.40)%; progression rates of (8.89 +/- 2.14)%, (15.16 +/- 2.94)%, and (23.88 +/- 4.19)%; bladder-preservation rates of (94.68 +/- 1.74)%, (93.87 +/- 1.91)%, and (91.51 +/- 2.49)%; metastasis rates of (8.25 +/- 2.05)%, (11.24 +/- 2.47)%, and (28.94 +/- 4.93)%; and cancer-related survival rates of (95.02 +/- 1.62)%, (90.70 +/- 2.45)%, and (77.14 +/- 4.88)%. The main risk factors for recurrence were histological grade, blood transfusion during surgery and the duration of symptoms. Progression was affected by blood transfusion during surgery, histological grade, the number of re-examinations, and the length of the recurrence-free period. Metastasis was associated with tumor multifocality, hydronephrosis, microscopic growth pattern, and the recurrence-free period. Cancer-related survival was influenced by microscopic growth pattern and the recurrence-free period. Bladder preservation involved only the recurrence-free period. The comprehensive results from canonical correlation analysis showed that the main prognostic outcomes were cancer-related survival, metastasis and progression respectively, while the dominate risk factors were histological grade, tumor multifocality and blood transfusion.

CONCLUSIONSThe risk factors were different for each prognostic outcome of transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. This is helpful for predicting the prognosis of transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder and designing therapeutic and follow-up strategies for this cancer.