OBJECTIVETo analyze factors influencing tuberculosis (TB) case detection so as to predict the trend of case detection in the year of 2005.

METHODSData was collected and analyzed regarding the correlation between the registration rate of newly identified smear-positive TB case and the directly observed treatment short-course (DOTS) coverage from 1996 to 2003. Based on the correlation analysis, regression equation was built to predict the case registration rate in 2005.

RESULTSBoth case registration rate and case detection rate showed an increasing trend from 1996 to 1998 and kept a platform between 1999 and 2002, followed by a zooming change in 2003 to reach a 45% case detection rate while the smear-positive TB case registration rate and DOTS coverage showed highly correlative (r = 0.849, P = 0.008). The regression equation was: y = b(0) + b(1) X = 1.754 + 0.217X (95% CI of beta: 0.082 - 0.352), F = 15.43, P = 0.008; R(2) = 0.72. If the DOTS coverage rate reaches 100% in 2005, the national new smear-positive registration rate will have become 23.5/100 000 (95% CI: 10.0 - 37.0) and the national new smear-positive case detection rate will have reached 51.8% (95% CI: 22.0 - 81.5).

CONCLUSIONOur research finding revealed that not only the expansion of DOTS could promote the rate of TB case detection but the quality of DOTS also played an important role in the TB control program. In order to reach the target of 70% case detection rate in 2005, programs as accelerating the DOTS expansion to increase the DOTS coverage and improving the quality of DOTS as well as other control measures need to be strengthened.