OBJECTIVETo explore the correlation between ultrasonic scores, routine blood tests and stages of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and identify non-invasive indexes to establish a diagnostic model for liver cirrhosis.

METHODSA retrospective analysis of 428 patients with CHB undergoing liver biopsies was conducted. The patients' hematology, serum biochemical indexes, serum alpha fetal proteins (AFP), serum HBeAg status and ultrasonic scores were statistically analyzed. A diagnostic model was established by stepwise discriminant analysis, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI) was used to estimate the diagnostic value.

RESULTSPartial correlation analysis indicated that platelet, serum albumin, bilirubin, AST, ratio of AST to alanine aminotransferase, prothrombin time and ultrasonic scores were correlated to the stages of liver fibrosis, and significantly differed between patients with and without liver cirrhosis. Logistic regression analysis identified ultrasonic scores, platelet, serum bilirubin, albumin and AST as indexes affecting the diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis. The area under receiver operation curve of model was 0.907. The cirrhosis index (CI) of -0.94 for this model was suitable for screening, with specificity of 85.0%, sensitivity of 81.7%, and accuracy of 84.3%. About 56.2% of the patients' CI was lower than -2.0 with the negative predictive value of 97.0% and the rate of missed diagnosis of 3.0%. About 18.2% of the patients' cirrhosis probabilities were above 0.15, with positive predictive value of 77.3%, and only 2.7% of the patients had mild fibrosis (F2), suggesting that nearly 75% of the patients did not have to receive liver biopsies.

CONCLUSIONThis diagnostic model integrates the ultrasonic scores, platelet, serum bilirubin, albumin and AST to enable effective screening and prediction of compensated cirrhosis, and can reduce the number of patients required to undergo liver biopsy by about 75%.