Discussion of price forecasting of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma based on ARIMA model.

Nuo Wang; Meng Cheng; Chun-xin Zang; Guang Yang

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Discussion of price forecasting of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma based on ARIMA model.

Author: Nuo WANG ¹ ; Meng CHENG ¹ ; Chun-Xin ZANG ² ; Guang YANG ³
Author Information

1. School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
2. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, China Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100035, China.
3. State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Dao-di Herbs, Institute of Chinese Materia Medica, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: ARIMA model; Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma; price forecast; unit test
From: China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2016;41(8):1559-1566
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Based on the analysis of price fluctuations on Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma, this paper takes advantage of the price data of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma which specification is 120 from January 2004 to August 2015, using autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA (p, d, q)] forecasting the price of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma from September 2015 to August 2016. In the process of determining the form of model, the stability test used to determine the model of p, and the autocorrelation function and particles autocorrelation functions to identify the p and q of model. According to test the model, the forecast minimum error model was identified. In this paper, ARIMA (2,1,3) model was used to predict next year's price of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma, for providing information for Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma growers, pharmaceutical companies.