OBJECTIVETo analyze the trends in mortality of esophageal cancer and explore the effects of age, period and cohort on esophageal cancer mortality rate in Linzhou city in 1986 - 2010, and predict the mortality of esophageal cancer in 2016 - 2020.

METHODSAll of the esophageal cancer-attributed deaths in 1986 - 2010 were drawn from the database in Center of Cancer and Vita Statistics in Henan Province. The numbers of the death cases and population were tabulated into 5-year age groups and 5-year period groups for each sex and linked each other. The age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization to the Chinese population structure in 1982. Intrinsic estimator model (IE model)was used to perform the age-period-cohort analysis and estimate the corresponding parameters. Age effect, period effect and cohort effect on esophageal cancer mortality rate was plotted separately. The mortality of esophageal cancer during 2016 - 2020 was predicted according to the parameters by that model.

RESULTSA total of 15432 cases died from esophageal cancer in Linzhou city in1986 - 2010. The overall crude mortality rate was 63.89 per 100, 000. Among men, the age-adjusted mortality rate was 109.66 per 100, 000 during 1986-1990 and decreased to 60.59 per 100, 000 during 2006 - 2010. For women, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 74.72 per 100, 000 to 39.05 per 100, 000 at the same two calendar periods. The IE model showed that age effect was remarkable, the period effect was stable and the cohort effect decreased greatly. The predicted mortality of over 30-years old population during 2016 - 2020 is 1501 for men and 1083 for women. Compared with 2006 - 2010 period the mortality will be decreased by 6.71% and 11.08%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONSThe mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city shows a decreasing trend during the period of 1986 - 2010. This trend is mainly attributed to the cohort effect. The predicted mortality in the future will decrease continually.