OBJECTIVETo explore the noninvasive indicators for predicting the occurrence of esophageal varices (EV) in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODSA total of 202 patients with liver cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B or C or alcoholic hepatic disease were enrolled in this study. EV and high risk esophageal varices (HREV) were confirmed in these patients by gastroscopy. The hematological, serum biochemical and ultrasonic parameters of the patients were analyzed, and a model for predicting EV was established by stepwise logistic regression analysis.

RESULTSThe areas under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of splenic thickness (SPT) for detecting EV and HREV were 0.827 and 0.766, respectively. The combined index USWA (SPT, US, WBC and albumin [ALB]) showed an AUROC of 0.873 for detecting EV, and the index SPA (combining SPT and ALB) showed an AUROC of 0.777 for detecting HREV. The direct combination of SPT with USWA or with platelet/splenic thickness ratio (PSA) was capable of completely excluding a definite diagnosis of EV, while the sequential combination of SPT with USWA or with platelet was capable of a diagnosis of EV and clarifying the condition of EV in approximately half of the cirrhotic patients in the absence of gastroscopic findings. The combination of SPT and SPA allowed for a definite diagnosis of the condition of HREV in 10% of the cirrhotic patients.

CONCLUSIONSPT combined with SPT derived indexes or platelet status allows for a definite diagnosis of EV in patients with liver cirrhosis to offer a noninvasive option for diagnosis.