Analysis of effect on infectious diseases outbreak detection performance by classifying provinces for moving percentile method.
- Author:
Honglong ZHANG
1
;
Qiao SUN
;
Shengjie LAI
;
Xiang REN
;
Dinglun ZHOU
;
Xianfei YE
;
Lingjia ZENG
;
Jianxing YU
;
Liping WANG
;
Hongjie YU
;
Zhongjie LI
;
Wei LYU
2
;
Yajia LAN
3
;
Weizhong YANG
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH: China; Communicable Diseases; Disease Notification; Disease Outbreaks; prevention & control; Humans; Population Surveillance; methods
- From: Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2014;48(4):265-269
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVEProviding evidences for further modification of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) via analyzing the outbreak detection performance of Moving Percentile Method (MPM) by optimizing thresholds in different provinces.
METHODSWe collected the amount of MPM signals, response results of signals in CIDARS, cases data in nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System, and outbreaks data in Public Health Emergency Reporting System of 16 infectious diseases in 31 provinces in Chinese mainland from January 2011 to October 2013. The threshold with the optimal sensitivity, the shortest time to detect outbreak and the least number of signals was considered as the best threshold of each disease in Chinese mainland and in each province.
RESULTSAmong all the 16 diseases, the optimal thresholds of 10 diseases, including dysentery, dengue, hepatitis A, typhoid and paratyphoid, meningococcal meningitis, Japanese encephalitis, scarlet fever, leptospirosis, hepatitis, typhus in country level were the 90(th) percentile (P90), which was the same as provincial level for those diseases.For the other 6 diseases, including other infectious diarrhea, influenza, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, mumps, rubella and epidemic hemorrhagic fever, the nationwide optimal thresholds were the 80th percentile (P80), which was different from that by provinces for each disease. For these 6 diseases, the number of signals generated by MPM with the optimal threshold for each province was decreased by 23.71% (45 557), 15.59% (6 124), 14.07% (1 870), 9.44% (13 881), 8.65% (1 294) and 6.03% (313) respectively, comparing to the national optimal threshold, while the sensitivity and time to detection of CIDARS were still the same.
CONCLUSIONOptimizing the threshold by different diseases and provinces for MPM in CIDARS could reduce the number of signals while maintaining the same sensitivity and time to detection.