OBJECTIVETo analyze predictive factors of advanced metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

METHODSFrom December 1996 to March 2008, 250 cases of advanced metastatic prostate cancer progressed into the stage of hormonal independent prostate cancer. The last follow-up date was 31 March 2008 and the median follow-up time was 24 months. During the follow-up, 131 cases were alive, 105 cases were dead and 14 cases were lost to follow-up. Clinical and pathological information of the cases was analyzed to find the predictive factors that related to the prognosis.

RESULTSThe median survival time of advanced metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer was 30 months, and the one-year, two-year, three-year survival rate was 79%, 59%, and 41%. The univariate analysis indicated that prostate specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis, clinical stage, the PSA nadir during hormonal therapy, the time form the start of hormonal therapy to the PSA nadir, the time of response duration during hormonal therapy, PSA velocity (PSAV) and PSA doubling time (PSADT) at the emergency of castration-resistant prostate cancer, age and PSA at the diagnosis of castration-resistant prostate cancer were factors that predicted the survival time of advanced metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. The multivariate analysis indicated that the PSA nadir during hormonal therapy, the time form the start of hormonal therapy to the PSA nadir, PSAV at the emergency of castration-resistant prostate cancer, the time of response duration during hormonal therapy were independent factors that predicted the survival time of advanced metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONThe PSA nadir during hormonal therapy, the time form the start of hormonal therapy to the PSA nadir, PSAV at the emergency of castration-resistant prostate cancer and the time of response duration during hormonal therapy are independent factors that predict the survival time of advanced metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.