A study of GM (1, 1) model for predicting the incidence trends of pneumoconiosis cases of an area.
- Author:
Qiang TAN
1
;
Chunhui GU
;
Yao GUO
;
Jiancong WU
;
Songgen CHEN
;
Yimin LIU
2
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH: Forecasting; methods; Humans; Incidence; Models, Theoretical; Pneumoconiosis; epidemiology
- From: Chinese Journal of Industrial Hygiene and Occupational Diseases 2014;32(11):834-836
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVETo explore the application of the gray series model GM (1, 1) in predicting trends in the incidence of pneumoconiosis and evaluate its degree of predicted precision.
METHODSAnalyzing the incidence of pneumoconiosis in this region from 2009 to 2013, and predicting the incidence of pneumoconiosis of the area in 2014-2016 by establishing GM (1, 1) according to the gray system theory.
RESULTSUsing occupational pneumoconiosis population data from 2009 to 2013, to establish GM (1, 1) model: yt = 1396.89e(0.12(t-1)), α = -0.12, µ = 147.2. The pneumoconiosis in 2014, 2015, 2016 were predicted respectively 51, 47, 43 cases based on the GM (1, 1) model, and C value of model is 0.15, P value is 1, all of them meet the requirements of model predictions. It shows the cases of pneumoconiosis are rising significantly.
CONCLUSIONGM (1, 1) model can be used to predict the recent trend in the incidence of pneumoconiosis.
