Effect of magnitude and duration on the performance of Cumulative Sum
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2012.06.017
- VernacularTitle:暴发规模和持续时间对CUSUM预警模型效能的影响
- Author:
Ding-Lun ZHOU
1
;
Wei-Zhong YANG
;
Ya-Jia LAN
;
Zhong-Jie LI
Author Information
1. 四川大学
- Keywords:
Outbreak magnitude;
Outbreak duration;
Cumulative Sum;
Performance of alert;
Simulation method
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2012;33(6):617-621
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
To explore the effect of magnitude and duration on the performance of Cumulative Sum (CUSUM),with simulation method used on the subject after the insertion of 11 outbreak events into baseline data with Poisson distribution.Sensitivity fluctuated from 9.1％ to 100.0％ with specificities higher than 98.6％.Sensitivity was significantly correlated with magnitude,and increased along with the increase of magnitude.However,no significant correlation was observed between sensitivity and duration.A magnitude which was at least 2.6 times higher than that of the mean daily baseline could result in the sensitivity of 100.0％.Time-lag would be improved along with the increase of magnitude.Time between onset and detection of an outbreak was no longer than one day when magnitude was more than 1.8 of the mean daily baseline.In summary,the performance of CUSUM was influenced by magnitude,but not by duration.CUSUM had the advantage of good time-lag and high sensitivity when the outbreak magnitude was more than 2.4 time over the baseline data.
