Comparison on the different thresholds on the 'moving percentile method' for outbreak detection
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2011.05.006
- VernacularTitle:移动百分位数法不同阈值在传染病暴发预警中的效果比较
- Author:
Qiao SUN
1
;
Sheng-Jie LAI
;
Zhong-Jie LI
;
Ya-Jia LAN
;
Hong-Long ZHANG
;
Dan ZHAO
;
Lian-Mei JIN
;
Wei-Zhong YANG
Author Information
1. 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心
- Keywords:
Infectious Diseases;
Moving percentile method;
Threshold;
Outbreak detection
- From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2011;32(5):450-453
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To compare the different thresholds of 'moving percentile method' for outbreak detection in the China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS). Methods The thresholds of P50, P60, P70, P80 and P90 were respectively adopted as the candidates of early warning thresholds on the moving percentile method. Aberration was detected through the reported cases of 19 notifiable infectious diseases nationwide from July 1,2008 to June 30,2010. Number of outbreaks and time to detection were recorded and the amount of signals acted as the indicators for determining the optimal threshold of moving percentile method in CIDARS. Results The optimal threshold for bacillary and amebic dysentery was P50. For non-cholera infectious diarrhea,dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, and epidemic mumps, it was P60. As for hepatitis A, influenza and rubella, the threshold was P70, but for epidemic encephalitis B it was P80. For the following diseses as scarlet fever, typhoid and paratyphoid, hepatitis E, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, malaria, epidemic hemorrhagic fever, meningococcal meningitis, leptospirosis, dengue fever, epidemic endemic typhus,hepatitis C and measles, it was P90. When adopting the adjusted optimal threshold for 19 infectious diseases respectively, 64 840(12.20%)signals had a decrease, comparing to the adoption of the former defaulted threshold(P50)during the 2 years. However, it did not reduce the number of outbreaks being detected as well as the time to detection, in the two year period. Conclusion The optimal thresholds of moving percentile method for different kinds of diseases were different.Adoption of the right optimal threshold for a specific disease could further optimize the performance of outbreak detection for CIDARS.
