OBJECTIVETo analyze and predict the trend in mortality rate of stomach cancer in twenty years in China.

METHODSStomach cancer mortality data collected from the China national survey over the period 1970s - 1990s for the cause of death were analyzed.

RESULTSThe adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer in 1990s increased by 11.0% and 6.3% for males and females, respectively. The urban mortality in 1970s was slightly higher than the rural mortality, while in 1990s the rural mortality rate was about 60% higher than the urban mortality. In 1990s, the adjusted urban mortality rate decreased by 22.2% and 26.7% for males and females, respectively. In contrast, the rural mortality rate increased by 26.4% and 22.1% for males and females, respectively. The sex ratio of stomach cancer deaths in 1990s, both in cities and rural areas, was slightly greater than that in 1970s, being more marked in the latter areas. In 1990s, the mortality rate decreased in 12 provinces, accounting for 44% in both sexes (12/27), but the decrease was more marked for females than for males except in Kiangs province. In provinces where the increased rates ranked top six positions, the magnitude of increase in rates was higher in males than in females.

CONCLUSIONThe overall mortality rates of stomach cancer in the past 20 years in China presented an increasing trend, despite there were upward and downward changes in 27 provinces and decrease in cities while increase in rural areas. Compared with other countries, the world-adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer for both sexes in China ranks first. The increasing trend in stomach cancer mortality was seen in the older age groups (> 60 years) while a decreasing trend was seen in the younger age groups (30 - 59 years). Aging of the population could be an important factor responsible for the increase in mortality rates of stomach cancer in China.