OBJECTIVETo analyze the epidemiology data on plague in five counties in Zhejiang province and to evaluate the risk of plague in theses areas.

METHODSWe selected five monitoring stations as a risk assessment (Qingyuan county, Longquan city, Yiwu city, Wencheng county, and Ruian city) in Zhejiang province where the plague epidemic more serious in the history. At least one constant site and 1-4 variable sites where plague occurred in history were selected for monitoring. We collected the five counties (cities) surveillance data of indoor rat density, indoor Rattus flavipectus density, the Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat, the Xenopsylla cheopis index of Rattus flavipectus in 1995-2014. Isolation of Yersinia pestis was conducted among 171,201 liver samples and F1 antibody were detected among 228,775 serum samples. Risk matrix, Borda count method, and Delphi approach were conducted to assess risk of the plague of five counties (cities) in Zhejiang province.

RESULTSIndoor rat density in Qingyuan county, Longquan city, Yiwu city, Wencheng county, Ruian city was 1.58%-5.50%, 1.13%-9.76%, 0.56%-3.67%, 2.83%-16.08%, 7.16%-15.96%, respectively; Indoor Rattus flavipectus density of five counties (cities) was 0.08%-2.23%, 0-2.02%, 0-0.54%, 0.71%-5.58%, 0.55%-4.92%, respectively. The Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat in Qingyuan county and Wencheng county was 0.011-0.500 and 0.015-0.227, respectively; The Xenopsylla cheopis index of Rattus flavipectus of Qingyuan county and Wencheng county was 0.119-3.412 and 0.100-1.430, respectively; Ruian City and Yiwu city cannot collected Xenopsylla cheopis, Long quan city only collected the Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat in the five years. Yersinia pestis were not isolated in five counties (cities).There were 3 Apodemus agrarius samples positive of plague F1 antibody test, in Longquan city and Yiwu city in 2005. Borda count method to assess the Longquan city, Yiwu (Borda point were both 321) plague risk was higher than three other regions; Delphi approach to evaluation five counties (cities) belong to the plague had a lower risk areas, according to the level of risk score (Pf) Longquan city and Yiwu (Pf was 0.314, 0.292, respectively) plague risk were higher than three other regions (Pf were all 0.292).

CONCLUSIONThe main host and media were lower in five key plague surveillance counties (cities) of Zhejiang province; The result of Borda count method and Delphi approach for risk assessment indicated that endogenous plague recrudescence was at lower level, but Longquan city and Yiwu city risk were higher than other counties (cities).