Joint application of mathematic models in assessing the residual risk of hepatitis C virus transmitted through blood transfusion
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2011.09.020
- VernacularTitle:联合运用数学模型对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒残留风险评估的分析
- Author:
Xun WANG
1
;
Yao JIA
;
Yun-Zheng XIE
;
Xiu-Mei LI
;
Xiao-Ying LIU
;
Xiao-Fei WU
Author Information
1. 上海市血液中心
- Keywords:
Hepatitis C virus;
Transfusion-transmitted disease;
Residual risk;
Mathematic models
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2011;32(9):936-939
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of ‘prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai,based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1st,2007 to Dec. 31st,2008 in Shanghai was 1∶101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper.
