The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis.

Ji Chuan Shen; Lei Luo; Li LI; Qin Long Jing; Chun Quan OU; Zhi Cong Yang; Xiao Guang Chen

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The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis.

Author: Ji Chuan SHEN ^{1
,

2} ; Lei LUO ³ ; Li LI ⁴ ; Qin Long JING ³ ; Chun Quan OU ⁴ ; Zhi Cong YANG ³ ; Xiao Guang CHEN ⁵
Author Information

1. Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, Guangdong, China
2. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, China.
3. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, China.
4. State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provinical Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, Guangdong, China.
5. Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, Guangdong, China.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Breteau index; Dengue fever; Meteorological factors; Negative binomial regression model
MeSH: Animals; China; epidemiology; Culicidae; physiology; Dengue; epidemiology; Epidemics; statistics & numerical data; Humans; Population Density; Time Factors; Weather
From: Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2015;28(5):321-329
CountryChina
Language:English
Abstract:
OBJECTIVETo explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever(DF) cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China.
METHODSThe monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index (BI), and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases.
RESULTSA total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month's BI, average temperature (Tave), previous month's minimum temperature (Tmin), and Tave were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25 °C was found in the relationship between the current month's Tmin and DF incidence.
CONCLUSIONMosquito density, Tave, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic.