OBJECTIVETo analyze the radiological parameters of the conservatively in treating distal radius fracture and investigate whether the final re-displacement can be predicted after primary reduction.

METHODSFrom January 2013 to June 2014,212 patients with distal radial fracture conservatively were treated in our hospital, 107 patients of them were excluded because of their incomplete radiological parameters;the remaining 105 patients were available for radiological were assessed after injury, there were 56 male patients and 49 female patients in this study, the average age of the patients was 51 years old (ranged from 22 to 80 years). According to AO classification, there were 47 cases of type A2 and C1, and 58 cases of type A3, C2, C3. All patients were treated by closed reduction and below-elbow cast immobilization for 4 to 6 weeks. All patients were followed up for 3 to 6 months (means 4.5 months) by X-ray, all fractures were healed. Standard AP and lateral radiographic examination was conducted before reduction and after reduction and bony consolidation,the dorsal angulation and the radial angle were measured at each time point. The linear regression was used for the analysis to find out whether the final re-displacement can be predicted after primary reduction.

RESULTSAmong 105 patients,the significant correlations were found for the dorsal angulation between the reduction time and the end time (r = 0.82) and for the radial angulation between the reduction time and end time (r = 0.85).

CONCLUSIONThe dorsal angulation and the radial angulation after complete healing can be predicted from linear the regression functions. Due to the possibility of predicting the end result, whether the fracture should receive further conservative treatment or surgical treatment can be decided immediately.