OBJECTIVETo investigate the ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score combined with serum sodium measurements to effectively evaluate the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

METHODSA total of 212 patients with decompensated cirrhosis were retrospectively analyzed. Each patient's MELD scores, and sodium-based MELD scores (MELD-Na, MELDNa, and MESO) were calculated at three-month intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive abilities of the four scores for 3-, 6- and 12-month mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were created using the best cut-off values for each score identified by the ROC.

RESULTSAmong the 212 patients, 46 died within three months, 56 died within six months, and 87 died within 12 months. The MELD, MELD-Na, MELDNa and MESO scores were significantly different between patients who survived and those who died within three and 12 months (P less than 0.01). The AUCs for the four separate scores were all more than 0.8 at the 3- and 6-month time points; however, the AUCs of MELDNa (3-month: 0.846; 6-month: 0.869) and MESO (0.831; 0.850) were significantly better than those of MELD (0.812; 0.841) (P less than 0.05). At the 12-month time point, the AUCs of MELD, MELD-Na, MELDNa, and MESO were not significantly different (0.774, 0.775, 0.786, and 0.777, respectively). Survival curves showed that all the scores were able to clearly discriminate the patients who survived from those who died within 12 months (P=0.000).

CONCLUSIONThe MELD score and its sodium-based variants (MELD-Na, MELDNa, and MESO) can precisely predict mortality of patients with decompensated cirrhosis for short and intermediate periods. The MELDNa and MESO scores are superior for predicting 3- and 6-month survival.