OBJECTIVEIn order to provide reliable data for strategies development on prevention, a meteorological factors-based predicating model for malaria forecast was studied.

METHODSData on malaria occurrence and climate changes from 1994 to 1999 in counties in Yunnan province was collected and analyzed with software packages of FoxPro 6.0 and Excel 5.0. The forecasting model for malaria occurrence was established, using the Neural Network Toolbox of Matlab 6.1 software package. In the studies of forecasting model, data of malaria and meteorological factors from 1994 to 1999 in Honghe state in Yunnan province was chosen. The meteorological factors included average monthly pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, monthly maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, rainfall, rainday, evaporation and sunshine hours in the study. The established forecasting model was also tested and verified.

RESULTSThe BP network model was established according to data of diseases and meteorological factors from Honghe state in Yunnan province. After training the neural network for 100 times, the error of performance decreased from 3.23608 to 0.035862. Verified by fact data of malaria, the efficiency of malaria forecasting was 84.85%.

CONCLUSIONNeural network model was effective for forecasting malaria. It showed advantages as: strong ability for analysis, lower claim for data, convenient and easy to apply etc. Neural network model might be used as a new method for malaria forecasting.