OBJECTIVETo set a quantitative criteria for determining the risks on cerebral vascular disease (CVD) so to identify that potential risk of an individual dying from CVD and to predict the individual risk of CVD.

METHODSData on case-control and cohort studies published during 1978 to 2003 was collected through retrieval of literatures, and data on surveillance of behavior exposure was provided by Chengdu Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Pooled odds ratio (OR) and relative risk (RR) of all risk factors for CVD were estimated using software for meta-analysis to enable the varied levels of risk factors be converted into risk fractions by statistical models.

RESULTSA risk score conversion table (quantitative criteria for assessment) of main risk factors for CVD was developed for men and women aged 35 - 69 at an interval of five years, including smoking, passive smoking, hypertension, high blood cholesterol levels, body mass index, lack of physical activity, alcohol drinking, dietary fat consumption, milk intake, oral contraceptive use, past history of diabetes and CVD, family history of CVD etc. Individuals with all these risk factors had a risk score beyond 1.00, but was equal to or below 1.00 when without. The risk score would increase along with the rise of one's risk level.

CONCLUSIONEstimation of risk of dying from CVD was based on risk score conversion table of risk factors for CVD, which could be used to predict individual potential risk of dying from CVD in the following 10 years. Our data provides evidence that education to be strengthened to persuade people to change their unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors.