OBJECTIVETo evaluate the risk of liver cancer attributed to dietary aflatoxins exposure in Chinese residents.

METHODSMathematics model and "Margin of Exposure (MOE)" methods were employed in this study. The data used in mathematics model came from Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) and the detection results of hepatitis B virus ( HBV) indicator in Chinese residents' blood sample in 2004. The data used in MOE model came from animal experiments, the fourth nutrition and health investigation among Chinese residents, and national inspection network for food contaminations.

RESULTSMathematics model indicated that for those people who were exposed to aflatoxins at average level (665.43 ng/d), the liver cancer incidence rate resulting from aflatoxins exposure was 0.4033 per 100 thousand person years. For those people who were exposed to aflatoxins at a high level (97.5 percentile, 24 787.20 ng/d) the liver cancer incidence rate attributed to aflatoxins exposure was 15.0215 per 100 thousand person years. Results from the MOE method showed that for the people in whole country, urban and rural areas who were exposed to aflatoxins at average level (0.011 09, 0.008 13 and 0.012 49 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively), the MOE values for aflatoxins to cause liver cancer were 9017.1, 12 304.7 and 8006.4 respectively. For those people who were exposed to aflatoxins at a high level (97.5 percentile, 0.413 10, 0.289 30 and 0.489 50 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively), the MOE values for aflatoxins to cause liver cancer were 242.1, 345.7 and 204.3 for whole country, urban and rural areas, respectively.

CONCLUSIONFor the people whose dietary aflatoxins exposure at average level, the risk of liver cancer attributed to aflatoxins is middle. For the people whose dietary aflatoxins exposure at high level, this kind of risk should be high.