Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease based on Bayes spatial-temporal theory
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2015.05.014
- VernacularTitle:基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响
- Author:
Chao WANG
1
;
Liqun FANG
;
Wuchun CAO
;
Yingjie ZHANG
;
Kai CAO
;
Qin XU
;
Xiuhua GUO
Author Information
1. 首都医科大学公共卫生学院北京市临床流行病学重点实验室
- Keywords:
Hand,foot and mouth disease;
Bayes spatial-temporal analysis;
Meteorological factor
- From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2015;36(5):476-480
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China.Methods Bayesian hierarchical model[Besag,York,and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data.The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model,correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Results The UH +CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35 507.2).Rainfall(RR=1.051 7,95％ CI:1.050 4-1.052 5),average temperature (RR=1.089 6,95％ CI:1.078 1-1.106 9),average relative humidity (RR=l.089 0,95％CI:1.082 1-1.091 2),average air pressure (RR=l.076 4,95％ CI:1.074 8-1.077 9) and hours of sunshine (RR=1.0851,95％ CI:1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics.The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.
