OBJECTIVETo establish a predictive scoring system which may serve for the prediction of sustained response to conventional interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha) treatment on chronic hepatitis B.

METHODSA total of 474 IFN-alpha treated hepatitis B virus e antigen (HBeAg)-positive patients were enrolled in the present study. The patients' baseline characteristics, such as age, gender, aminotransferases, activity grading (G) of intrahepatic inflammation, score (S) of liver fibrosis, hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and genotype were evaluated; therapy duration and response of each patient at the 24th wk after cessation of IFN-alpha treatment were also recorded. A predictive scoring system for a sustained complete response (CR) to IFN-alpha therapy was established based on genetic algorithm. About 10% of the patients were randomly drawn out as the test set. Responses to IFN-alpha therapy were divided into CR, partial response (PR) and non-response (NR). The mixed set of PR and NR was recorded as PR + NR.

RESULTSFor the scoring system, the sensitivity and specificity were 78.8% and 80.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONThis SCR scoring system has satisfying prediction efficiency and is easily employed in clinical practice. With this scoring system, practitioners can propose individualized decisions that have an integrated foundation on both evidence-based medicine and personal characteristics.