PURPOSEThis prospective observational study aims to evaluate the accuracy of dead-space fraction derived from the ventilator volumetric capnography (volumetric CO₂) or a prediction equation to predict the survival of mechanically ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

METHODSConsecutive VD/VT measurements were obtained based upon a prediction equation validated by Frankenfield et al for dead-space ventilation fraction: VD/VT = 0.320 + 0.0106 (PaCO₂-ETCO₂)⁺ 0.003 (RR)⁺0.0015 (age) in adult patients who had infection-related severe pneumonia and were confirmed as having ARDS. Here PaCO₂ is the arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide in mmHg; ETCO₂, the end- tidal carbon dioxide measurement in mmHg; RR, respiratory rate per minute; and age in years. Once the patient had intubation, positive end expiratory pressure was adjusted and after Phigh reached a steady state, VD/VT was measured and recorded as the data for the first day. VD/VT measurement was repeated on days 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Meanwhile we collected dead-space fraction directly from the ventilator volu- metric CO₂ and recorded it as Vd/Vt. We analyzed the changes in VD/VT and Vd/Vt over the 6-day period to determine their accuracy in predicting the survival of ARDS patients.

RESULTSOverall, 46 patients with ARDS met the inclusion criteria and 24 of them died. During the first 6 days of intubation, VD/VT was significantly higher in nonsurvivors on day 4 (0.70 ± 0.01 vs 0.57 ± 0.01), day 5 (0.73 ± 0.01 vs. 0.54 ± 0.01), and day 6 (0.73 ± 0.02 vs. 0.54 ± 0.01) (all p =0.000). Vd/Vt showed no significant difference on days 1e4 but it was much higher in nonsurvivors on day 5 (0.45 ± 0.04 vs. 0.41 ± 0.06) and day 6 (0.47 ± 0.05 vs. 0.40 ± 0.03) (both p=0.008). VD/VT on the fourth day was more accurate to predict survival than Vd/Vt. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for VD/VT and Vd/Vt in evaluating ARDS patients survival was day 4 (0.974 ± 0.093 vs. 0.701 ± 0.023, p = 0.0024) with the 95% confidence interval being 0.857-0.999 vs. 0.525-0.841.

CONCLUSIONCompared with Vd/Vt derived from ventilator volumetric CO₂, VD/VT on day 4 calculated by Frankenfield et al's equation can more accurately predict the survival of ARDS patients.