An assessment on the effectiveness of condom use in reducing the incidence of chlamydia through mathematical modelling.
- Author:
Shan-bo WEI
1
;
Jun-an LU
;
Ji-nan CHEN
;
Zu-xun LU
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH: China; epidemiology; Chlamydia Infections; epidemiology; prevention & control; Condoms; utilization; Forecasting; Humans; Incidence; Models, Theoretical; Population Surveillance; Sex Work
- From: Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2007;28(3):290-293
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVETo determine the relationship between the rate of condom use and incidence of Chlamydia amongst commercial sex worker, using a mathematical model.
METHODSAssuming that p(%) is the rate of condom use by female sex workers, and r(%) is the incidence of Chlamydia. If the use of condom increases by delta p, then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by delta r. k is the relative rate of change. Then, the mathematical model established becomes dr/dp = -kr.
RESULTSThe solution of the differential equation is r (p) = r (P0) exp [-k (p - p0)]. Using the surveillance data gathered from 100% Condom Use Program in Wuhan City, the k value is calculated to be 4.36. If k indicates the contribution coefficient of reducing Chlamydia after condom use, when the rate of condom use increases by 16%, then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by 50%. The average difference between the actual incidence and the incidence calculated from the mathematical model is only 6.2%. This result demonstrates a good fit. The predicted result of using this mathematical model shows that at the time of lower levels of condom use, a small increment on the rate of condom use would considerably reduce the infection rate of Chlamydia.
CONCLUSIONWhen k remains constant, this mathematical model reflects the qualitative relationship between the rate of condom use and the incidence of Chlamydia.