Estimation of Paratuberculosis Prevalence in Dairy Cattle in a Province of Korea using an Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay: Application of Bayesian Approach.
- Author:
Son Il PAK
1
;
Doo KIM
;
Mo SALMAN
Author Information
1. Department of Veterinary Medicine, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 200-701, Korea. paksi@kangwon.ac.kr
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords:
Mycobacterium paratuberculosis;
ELISA;
Bayesian;
Gibbs sampling
- MeSH:
Animals;
Bayes Theorem;
Cattle;
Cattle Diseases/*epidemiology;
Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay/*methods;
Korea/epidemiology;
Paratuberculosis/*epidemiology;
Prevalence
- From:Journal of Veterinary Science
2003;4(1):51-56
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
To draw inferences about the sensitivity and specificity of the newly developed ELISA test for bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis and posterior distribution on the prevalence of PTB in a province of Korea, we applied Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampler to the data extracted from the prevalence study in 1999. The data were from a single test results without a designated gold test. The prevalence estimates for PTB in study population ranged 3.2~5.3% for conservative and 6.7~7.1% for liberal, depending on the priors used. The simulated specificities of the ELISA close to one another, ranging 84.7~90.6%, whereas the sensitivity was somewhat spread out depending largely on the priors with a range of 46.4~88.2%. Our findings indicate that the ELISA method appeared useful as a screening tool at a minimum level in comparison to other diagnostic tests available for this disease in terms of sensitivity. However, this advantage comes at a cost of having low specificity of the test.
