Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea.
- Author:
Chang Mo OH
1
;
Kyu Won JUNG
;
Young Joo WON
;
Aesun SHIN
;
Hyun Joo KONG
;
Jin Soo LEE
Author Information
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords: Thyroid; Neoplasms; Incidence; Time trends; Korea
- MeSH: Carcinoma; Carcinoma, Papillary; Cohort Effect; Cohort Studies; Female; Humans; Incidence*; Korea; Male; Mass Screening; Parturition; Thyroid Gland; Thyroid Neoplasms*
- From:Cancer Research and Treatment 2015;47(3):362-369
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
- Abstract: PURPOSE: South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the Korean National Cancer registry database, age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in thyroid cancer according to sex and histologic type were analyzed between 1997 and 2011. Age-period-cohort models were applied using an intrinsic estimator method according to sex. RESULTS: In both men and women, the incidence of thyroid cancer showed a sharp increase from 1997 through 2011. Among the histologic types, papillary carcinoma showed the greatest increase, with APCs of 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.7% to 27.5%) in men and 23.7% (95% CI, 21.9% to 25.5%) in women, whereas anaplastic carcinoma did not show a significant increase in either sex. An increase in overall thyroid cancer incidence over time was observed in all birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model indicated a steeply increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 1997 to 2011 in both men and women. The age effect showed an inverted U-shaped trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight increase or remain constant from 1952 to 1977, followed by a decrease. CONCLUSION: The period effect can explain the sharp increase in thyroid cancer incidence, strongly suggesting the role of thyroid screening.
