Impact of temperature on varicella incidence in Jiangjin District, Chongqing
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.05.008
- VernacularTitle:重庆市江津区气温对水痘发病的影响研究
- Author:
Xun LIU
1
;
Yu LIU
1
;
Qiuyu MENG
1
Author Information
1. Jiangjin District Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Chongqing 402260 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Varicella;
Distributed lag nonlinear model;
Ambient temperature
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(5):36-39
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To examine the effect of temperature on the risk of varicella in Jiangjin District, Chongqing, and to provide reference for formulating varicella prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on varicella cases from 2015 to 2020 were collected through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, while meteorological data for the same period were collected through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network. A distributed lag non-linear model was employed to analyze the correlation between different lag days (lag) and temperature and the incidence of varicella, as well as their impact on sensitive population. Using the lowest risk temperature as a reference, the relative risk of extreme low temperature 8°C (P5) and extreme high temperature 31.5°C (P95) on the onset of varicella was estimated. Results Over the six-year period, Jiangjin District reported 7 547 varicella cases, predominantly among children aged 5-9, accounting for 40.64% (3 067 cases) of the total. The incidence of varicella exhibited obvious seasonality and a bimodal distribution pattern. The exposure-response curve between daily varicella cases and temperature was U-shaped. At a low temperature of 8°C with a 3-day lag, the general population exhibited the highest risk, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.22-1.67). After a 7-day lag, the cumulative relative risk (CRR) escalated to 2.79 (95% CI: 1.95-3.98). Conversely, at a high temperature of 31.5°C with no lag, the peak risk yielded an RR of 1.77 (95% CI: 1.23-2.37), and a 7-day lag resulted in a CRR of 2.05 (95% CI: 1.47-2.86). The temperature had the greatest impact on the incidence of varicella in preschool children. At 8°C with a 7-day lag, the CRR of varicella incidence in preschool children was 2.34 (95% CI: 1.89-2.91), with an attributable fraction (AF) of temperature reaching 38.49% (95% CI: 34.45%-42.06%). Conclusion Exposure to both low and high temperature in Jiangjin District, Chongqing can increase the risk of varicella, and the effect is more pronounced in preschool children.
