Trends and predictions of lip and oral cavity cancer incidence in Chinese population from 1990 to 2021
10.12016/j.issn.2096-1456.202550115
- Author:
ZHANG Ying
1
;
WANG Yanxin
2
;
QIU Yongle
2
;
ZHAO Jiahong
2
;
DUAN Yanhao
2
;
LI Kunshan
2
;
LV Feifei
3
Author Information
1. The Third Hospital of Shijiazhuang City
2. The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University
3. Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
lip cancer;
oral cavity cancer;
incidence trend;
Global burden of Disease database;
age-period-cohort model;
Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction model;
gender differences;
elderly population;
epidemiology;
public health strategy
- From:
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases
2025;33(9):773-783
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the trends, gender, and age differences in the incidence of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population from 1990 to 2021 and predict future incidence trends, providing a scientific basis for disease prevention and public health policy.
Methods:Incidence data of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. The Joinpoint regression model was used to assess temporal trends, the age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) model was used to predict incidence trends from 2022 to 2044.
Results:From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population increased from 2.39/100 000 to 3.76/100 000, and the crude incidence rate rose from 1.71/100 000 to 4.85/100 000. The incidence rate in males was higher and increased more rapidly than in females. Higher incidence rates were prevalent among older populations, a rapid increase in incidence rates occurred during 2003 to 2012, and earlier birth cohorts showed overall higher risks. BAPC predictions indicated a continued rise in incidence from 2022 to 2044. During this period, male incidence stabilized while female incidence increased at a relatively faster rate.
Conclusion:The incidence of lip and oral cavity cancer in Chinese population has revealed a continuous upward trend, particularly among males and older populations. Future prevention strategies should focus on these high-risk populations.
- Full text:20250905141635730201990—2021年中国人群唇和口腔癌发病率变化趋势及预测分析.pdf
