PREDICTION OF DISEASE BURDEN AND HEALTHCARE RESOURCE UTILIZATION THROUGH SIMPLE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS USING MATHEMATICAL APPROACHES, AN EXPERIENCE FROM UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA MEDICAL CENTRE
https://doi.org/10.22452/jummec.sp2020no1.3
- Author:
Amirah binti Azzeri
1
;
Nur Farhan Abudl Hakim
1
;
Mohd Hafiz Jaafar
2
;
Maznah Dahlul
3
;
Sajaratulnisah Othman
3
;
Tunku Kamarul Zaman Tunku Zainol Abidin
4
Author Information
1. Department of Research, Development and Innovation, Universiti Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
2. Department of Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Sains Islam, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia.
3. Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
4. National Orthopaedic Centre of Excellence for Research and Learning (NOCERAL), Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Covid-19;
Projection of Burden;
Healthcare Utilisations
- MeSH:
COVID-19
- From:Journal of University of Malaya Medical Centre
2020;23(Special Issue COVID19):10-15
- CountryMalaysia
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
The sudden surge in the number of healthcare utilizations compels the hospital to plan for its future needs. Several time-series projections of Covid-19 were conducted to forecast the disease burden and resources utilization through simple predictive analytics. The projections revealed a rapid increase in the number of cases and patient in care at the hospital. It was estimated that the number of patients in care to range from 62 to 81 and 89 to 121 patients daily in the second and third phase of movement control order respectively. It was estimated that more than 100,000 plastic aprons, 80,000 sterile and non-sterile isolation gowns, 40,000 masks N95 and face shields, 30,000 gloves and nearly 17,000 bottles of hand sanitizers are needed until late May. Hence, a simple mathematical algorithm is a helpful tool to manage hospital resources during the pandemic.
- Full text:202508121022228752263051.pdf
