Comparison of trends in the disease burden of gout in China and globally in 1990 - 2021, and prediction of disease burden in China in 2030
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.04.002
- VernacularTitle:1990—2021年中国及全球痛风负担趋势分析与比较
- Author:
Zhichun CHANG
1
,
2
;
Huele LI
1
,
2
;
Yanfang LI
1
,
2
;
Ting QIN
1
,
2
;
Jun LI
1
,
2
;
Mingren HU
1
;
Xinjing YANG
1
;
Yufeng XIE
1
,
3
Author Information
1. Shenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine , Shenzhen, Guangdong 518034 , China
2. The Sixth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen , Guangdong 518034 , China
3. Faculty of Chinese Medicine and State Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicines , Macau University of Science and Technology , Macau , Macau SAR 999078 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Gout;
GBD;
Incidence;
Prevalence;
Disability adjusted life years
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(4):7-11
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the changing trend in the disease burden of gout in China from 1990 to 2021, and analyze the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by age and gender, with comparisons to global patterns, and to predict the disease burden of gout in China in 2030. Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were used to analyze changes in gout burden. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Comparative analyses were conducted on data from China and the world, and an ARIMA model was used to project China's gout burden in 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, China's age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rose from 122.52 to 151.61/100,000, exceeding the global rise from 93.09 to 109.07/100,000. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in China increased from 640.67/100,000 to 810.35/100,000, compared to a global rise from 536.54/100,000 to 653.81/100,000. The age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) in China increased from 20.2/100,000 to 25.43/100,000, surpassing the global increase from 16.67/100,000 to 20.21/100,000. AAPCs for ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR in China were 0.70%, 0.77%, and 0.75%, respectively, all higher than global rates. Middle-aged and elderly men faced the highest burden. It was predicted that there will be a decline in China's ASIR and ASPR by 2030, while ASDR will remain stable. Conclusion The disease burden of gout in China has increased significantly, outpacing global trends. Targeted interventions for hyperuricemia, particularly in elderly men, are crucial to reduce the future disease burden.
