Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model
10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.24571
- VernacularTitle:应用调整Serfling回归模型估计北京市手足口病超额病例数
- Author:
Shuaibing DONG
1
;
Ruitong WANG
2
;
Da HUO
1
;
Baiwei LIU
1
;
Hao ZHAO
1
;
Zhiyong GAO
1
;
Xiaoli WANG
3
;
Peng YANG
4
;
Quanyi WANG
4
;
Daitao ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China
2. School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
3. Beijing Office of Global Health, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China
4. Central Office, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
hand-foot-mouth disease;
adjusted Serfling regression model;
excess case;
excess epidemic period;
disease burden
- From:
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
2025;37(3):206-209
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control. MethodsThe weekly number of HFMD cases in Beijing from 2011 to 2019 was utilized for adjusted the Serfling regression model. Then the adjusted model was used to fit the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, calculating the excess cases and determining the excess epidemic period. ResultsA total of 279 306 cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, with the climax of the disease occurring in summer and autumn. After adjusting the fitting R2 of the Serfling regression model to 0.773, a total of 10 excess epidemic periods totaling 92 weeks were estimated, mainly occurring in summer. The highest number of excess cases during an excess epidemic period was found in 2014 (1 272 cases, 95%CI: 990‒1 554), accounting for 65.04% of the actual cases (95%CI: 50.62%‒79.46%). ConclusionThe adjusted Serfling regression model fits well and can be utilized for early warning of HFMD and estimating the disease burden caused by HFMD.
