Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China
10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124
- VernacularTitle:中国儿童1990—2021年哮喘疾病负担变化及未来趋势预测
- Author:
ZANG Xiao, ZOU Yanzheng, TAO Luqiu, JIANG Shangde, MEI Wei, MA Lianzheng, TAN Gao, LIU Tao, LIU Xiaoli, HONG Shanchao, WANG Wei
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (211166) , Jiangsu Province, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Asthma;
Symptom burden;
Prevalence;
Child;
China
- From:
Chinese Journal of School Health
2025;46(4):573-578
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the control interventions for childhood asthma in China.
Methods:The prevalent case, agestandard prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and agestandard DALYs rate of children with asthma at ages of 0 to 14 years and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The temporal trends in the disease burden of childhood asthma were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), and the disease burden due to asthma was projected among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035.
Results:There were 9.368 3 million (95%UI=6.410 7 million to 14.026 1 million) prevalent cases of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021, contributing to 0.387 9 million (95%UI=0.216 1 million to 0.668 8 million) DALYs loss. The prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma decreased by 37.28% and 52.55% among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021 compared with 1990, and the agestandardized prevalence [EAPC=-0.70%, 95%CI=-1.26% to -0.13%)] and DALY rates [EAPC=-1.71%, 95%CI=-2.32% to -1.10%)] also appeared a tendency towards a decline. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalent cases, prevalence, DALYs and DALYs rate of asthma were all higher among male children than among female children, and the disease burden of asthma was higher among children at ages of 5 to 9 years than at other age groups. BAPC model predicted a decline in both prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035, with 6.759 6 million prevalent cases and DALYs of 0.228 4 million personyears in 2035, while the prevalence and DALYs rates were projected to rise to 5 143.35/105 and 173.75/105 in 2035.
Conclusions:Despite a reduction in the disease burden of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021, the prevalence remained high. The disease burden due to asthma is projected to appear a decline among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035; however, the prevalence and DALYs rates still rise. Intensified control measures and targeted interventions are required to reduce the disease burden of childhood asthma.
