Research on the population dynamics and the meteorological influencing factors of Aedes albopictus in Hainan Province based on time series models
- Author:
LI Mingfa
;
LIU Ying
;
LIU Puyu
;
WU Qun
;
ZENG Xuexia
;
SUN Dingwei
;
YANG Guojing
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Aedes albopictus;
vector surveillance;
seasonal trend;
influencing factors;
multivariate time series
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2024;24(3):282-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the application of time series models based on meteorological factors in the population density of Aedes albopictus in Hainan Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Hainan Province. Methods The density of Aedes albopictus in different habitats in 18 cities and counties of Hainan Province from 2017 to 2022 was monitored monthly using the double-mosquito net trapping index and the Breteau index. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to analyze the temporal trends of the two density indices; Spearman's correlation analysis was employed to assess the correlation strength between each meteorological factor and the two indexes, eliminating unrelated variables, and further selecting the final variables through the full-subset regression method. Three time-series models were constructed for the two density indices, with root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and other accuracy metrics used to determine the optimal model; predictions for the density indices for 2023-2024 were made. All statistical analyses were performed in R (4.3.1). Results The net trapping and Breteau indices showed an overall decrease over the years (Z-values of Mann-Kendall trend test were -6.15 and -4.03, respectively, and P<0.05). The meteorological factor most strongly associated with the trap index was the monthly average minimum temperature; monthly mean minimum temperature and monthly mean relative humidity were strongly correlated with the Breteau index. Based on various evaluation indicators, the multivariate time series model demonstrated the highest accuracy. The study predicts one to two peaks in both the trap index and Breteau Index for the years 2023 and 2024, with peak periods occurring between June to September and May to September, respectively. The predicted value for 2023 aligns with the measured value, demonstrating outstanding predictive accuracy. Conclusions This study has introduced meteorological factors into the seasonal time series model, allowing for more accurate predictions of the density of Aedes albopictus in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2024, providing a model framework for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Hainan Province.
- Full text:20250428163301533659.Research on the population dynamics and the meteorological influencing factors of Aedes albopictus in Hainan Province based on time series models.pdf
