Risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis
- VernacularTitle:食管癌根治术后吻合口瘘发生风险预测模型的系统评价与Meta分析
- Author:
Tao LI
1
;
Yunlan JIANG
2
;
Jing KANG
1
;
Shuang SONG
1
;
Qiufeng DU
1
;
Xiaodong YI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Nursing, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, 610072, P. R. China
2. Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, 610075, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Esophageal carcinoma;
anastomotic fistula;
risk prediction model;
systematic review/meta-analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2025;32(03):385-392
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To systematically evaluate the risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer, and to provide objective basis for selecting a suitable model. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted on Chinese and English databases including CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, CBM, PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library for relevant studies on the risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer from inception to April 30, 2023. Two researchers independently screened literatures and extracted data information. PROBAST tool was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of included literatures. Meta-analysis was performed on the predictive value of common predictors in the model with RevMan 5.3 software. Results A total of 18 studies were included, including 11 Chinese literatures and 7 English literatures. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models ranged from 0.68 to 0.954, and the AUC of 10 models was >0.8, indicating that the prediction performance was good, but the risk of bias in the included studies was high, mainly in the field of research design and data analysis. The results of the meta-analysis on common predictors showed that age, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, C-reactive protein, history of preoperative chemotherapy, hypoproteinemia, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary infection, and calcification of gastric omental vascular branches are effective predictors for the occurrence of anastomotic leakage after radical surgery for esophageal cancer (P<0.05). Conclusion The study on the risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer is still in the development stage. Future studies can refer to the common predictors summarized by this study, and select appropriate methods to develop and verify the anastomotic fistula prediction model in combination with clinical practice, so as to provide targeted preventive measures for patients with high-risk anastomotic fistula as soon as possible.
